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As Bill Janeway noted in his critique of the capital-fueled bubbles that resulted from the ultra-low interest rates of the decade following the 2007–2009 financial crisis, “ capital is not a strategy.” Venture capitalists don’t have a crystal ball. The capital-fueled race to build the largest models has already led to bad behavior.
To find optimal values of two parameters experimentally, the obvious strategy would be to experiment with and update them in separate, sequential stages. Our experimentation platform supports this kind of grouped-experiments analysis, which allows us to see rough summaries of our designed experiments without much work.
Instead, we focus on the case where an experimenter has decided to run a full traffic ramp-up experiment and wants to use the data from all of the epochs in the analysis. When there are changing assignment weights and time-based confounders, this complication must be considered either in the analysis or the experimental design.
Bonus: Here's one of my favorite articles… all the way from 2007 but chock full of pithy valuable lessons for all of us regardless of our field: 41 Timeless Ways to Screw Up Direct Marketing. Bonus 2: Google Analytics has a wonderful set of reports called Multi-Channel Funnels. What do you find exciting?
We are far too enamored with data collection and reporting the standard metrics we love because others love them because someone else said they were nice so many years ago. Circle of Friends was a social community built atop Facebook that launched in 2007. Online, offline or nonline. Yet this structure rarely exists in companies.
A geo experiment is an experiment where the experimental units are defined by geographic regions. The expected precision of our inferences can be computed by simulating possible experimental outcomes. Cambridge, 2007. Wouldn't it be great if we didn't require individual data to estimate an aggregate effect?
Delibrate Your Data, Dig Into Your Data, Reimagine Content Reporting. The Difference Between Web Reporting And Web Analysis. Refuse Report Requests. Consultants, Analysts: Present Impactful Analysis, Insightful Reports. The Awesome Power of Visualization 2 -> Death and Taxes 2007. The Best Web Analytics Report.
Spoiler alert: a research field called curiosity-driven learning is emerging at the nexis of experimental cognitive psychology and industry use cases for machine learning, particularly in gaming AI. Ensure a culture that supports a steady process of learning and experimentation. Frédéric Kaplan, Pierre-Yves Oudeyer (2007).
I open GA's keyword report. For paid search keyword reporting (volumes, competitive performance, CPS's etc.) I have personally had a lot of success using Controlled Experimentation techniques, such as, say, Media Mix Modeling, to understand both current available demand and also segment conversion effectiveness.
1971: Creeper worm Just five years after John von Neumann’s theoretical work was published, a programmer by the name of Bob Thomas created an experimental program called Creeper, designed to move between different computers on the ARPANET , a precursor to the modern Internet.
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