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Two years of pandemic uncertainty and escalating business risk have sharpened the focus of corporate boards on a technology trend once dismissed as just another IT buzzword. I joined Baxter as CIO in 2011, and in 2016 I was presented with the opportunity to join my first public company board.
Since 2011, our two companies have each innovated to build better products and win more business. Three years later, the core team of developers working inside Yahoo on Hadoop spun out to found Hortonworks. They, too, saw the enormous potential for data at scale in the enterprise. Forward-Looking Statements.
The President of Iceland Olafur Ragnar Grimsson explained this phenomenon to me when I had the privilege to interview him in 2011 (Gartner Report: G00212784 ). “So He was talking about something we call the ‘compound uncertainty’ that must be navigated when we want to test and introduce a real breakthrough digital business idea.
Quantification of forecast uncertainty via simulation-based prediction intervals. In the first plot, the raw weekly actuals (in red) are adjusted for a level change in September 2011 and an anomalous spike near October 2012. Such a model risks conflating important aspects, notably the growth trend, with other less critical aspects.
A clear parallel would be credit risk in Retail Banking, but something as simple as an estimate of potentially delinquent debtors is an inherently statistical figure (albeit one that may not depend on the output of a statistical model). See in particular my trilogy: Using historical data to justify BI investments – Part I (2011).
Further, there is the risk that the increased ad spend will be less productive due to diminishing returns (e.g., In practice, the focus of the team is however on the estimate of $beta_2$, not to forget about the uncertainty around this estimate: the confidence interval half-width was estimated to be 0.27.
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