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Forecasting uncertainty at Airbnb

O'Reilly on Data

Theresa Johnson outlines the AI powering Airbnb’s metrics forecasting platform. Continue reading Forecasting uncertainty at Airbnb.

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The Lean Analytics Cycle: Metrics > Hypothesis > Experiment > Act

Occam's Razor

To win in business you need to follow this process: Metrics > Hypothesis > Experiment > Act. We are far too enamored with data collection and reporting the standard metrics we love because others love them because someone else said they were nice so many years ago. That metric is tied to a KPI.

Metrics 157
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Escaping POC Purgatory: Evaluation-Driven Development for AI Systems

O'Reilly on Data

Business value : Once we have a rubric for evaluating our systems, how do we tie our macro-level business value metrics to our micro-level LLM evaluations? Business value : Align outputs with business metrics and optimize workflows to achieve measurable ROI. LLM-powered software amplifies this uncertainty further.

Testing 168
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Highlights from the Strata Data Conference in San Francisco 2019

O'Reilly on Data

Forecasting uncertainty at Airbnb. Theresa Johnson outlines the AI powering Airbnb’s metrics forecasting platform. Watch " Forecasting uncertainty at Airbnb.". Watch " Winners of the Strata Data Awards 2019.". It’s in the game: A rare look into how EA brought data science into the creative process of game design.

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What you need to know about product management for AI

O'Reilly on Data

Machine learning adds uncertainty. Underneath this uncertainty lies further uncertainty in the development process itself. There are strategies for dealing with all of this uncertainty–starting with the proverb from the early days of Agile: “ do the simplest thing that could possibly work.”

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You Can’t Regulate What You Don’t Understand

O'Reilly on Data

If we want prosocial outcomes, we need to design and report on the metrics that explicitly aim for those outcomes and measure the extent to which they have been achieved. There is no simple way to solve the alignment problem. But alignment will be impossible without robust institutions for disclosure and auditing.

Metrics 359
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AI Product Management After Deployment

O'Reilly on Data

Ideally, AI PMs would steer development teams to incorporate I/O validation into the initial build of the production system, along with the instrumentation needed to monitor model accuracy and other technical performance metrics. But in practice, it is common for model I/O validation steps to be added later, when scaling an AI product.